Bitcoin’s recent momentum has catapulted it beyond the $70,000 mark, driven by a cocktail of technical indicators and economic optimism tied to the upcoming U.S. election. The cryptocurrency, up 3% in 24 hours, has seen a remarkable 140% surge in trading volume to over $36 billion—a signal that investor interest is surging.
At the center of this rally is the formation of a “golden cross,” a classic technical pattern where the 50-day moving average surpasses the 200-day moving average, often interpreted as a harbinger of sustained gains. This bullish setup has sparked optimism among traders looking for a strong close to 2024.
Election Sentiment and BTC Projections
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, notes that Bitcoin could see notable price shifts as the U.S. presidential election unfolds. According to his research, a Trump win could push Bitcoin beyond $75,000 by Election Day, with a potential year-end high of $125,000 if Republicans take control of Congress. Conversely, Kendrick suggests that while a Harris-led Democratic victory might introduce a dip, Bitcoin could still finish the year with new highs around $75,000.
Kendrick’s scenarios underscore that market optimism surrounding Bitcoin is closely tied to policy expectations post-election, with regulatory and fiscal shifts potentially influencing crypto-friendly conditions.
Rate Cuts and Volatility Indicators
November’s macroeconomic backdrop adds another layer of intrigue. With the Federal Reserve expected to consider a 25-basis-point rate cut in early November, bringing rates to between 4.5% and 4.75%, market liquidity could see a much-needed boost. This anticipated rate decision has already impacted the U.S. Dollar Index and Treasury yields, but a cut could prove beneficial for crypto assets as liquidity dynamics shift.
At the same time, secondary market metrics hint at rising volatility. While BTC’s implied volatility has been in decline, recent spikes in short-term options activity suggest that investors are beginning to bet on a potentially turbulent November.
Institutional Interest: ETFs and Corporate Activity
ETF inflows signal strong interest from traditional Wall Street players, with BTC ETFs recording a net inflow of $3 billion over the last two weeks of October. This trend indicates that institutional sentiment remains bullish, likely buoyed by continued optimism in the crypto asset class.
Another potential driver could be Microsoft’s rumored Bitcoin purchase, pending board approval, which could signal a new phase of institutional interest if it proceeds. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s outlook remains tempered by persistent selling pressure from the Ethereum Foundation, which could create market headwinds.
Outlook: BTC and ETH Price Ranges
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, projects Bitcoin to trade between $66,000 and $75,000 in November, with Ethereum potentially ranging from $2,350 to $3,200. Lee emphasizes that if liquidity conditions improve post-election, investors may also see increased interest in altcoins.
As the markets head into a highly anticipated November, Bitcoin’s upward trend is set against a backdrop of technical strength, political forecasts, and institutional enthusiasm. Whether these forces can sustain the momentum remains to be seen, but they underscore a growing belief in Bitcoin’s place within the broader financial ecosystem.
Read Also: Bitcoin Nears 70,000 Amid Bullish Momentum
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