Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst, notes that after the long weekend on July 4, the U.S. announced a further delay to the tariffs originally set to take effect on August 1, buying one last negotiating window; June’s nonfarm payrolls surged by 147,000 (with a 16,000 upward revision to prior months), the unemployment rate fell to 4.12%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month—pushing July rate-cut odds down from 24% to about 5%, with terminal rates now seen at 3.8% by end-2025 and 3.15% by end-2026.
Fueled by the Trump administration’s major tax stimulus and NATO’s defense-spending boost, the S&P 500 repeatedly set new highs, Bitcoin extended its gains this morning, and ETH ETFs logged their largest single-day inflows of the quarter—while Fundstrat’s BMNR raised $250 million to buy ETH, sending its stock up over 30×.
Last night’s release of the Fed’s June minutes revealed deep splits over tariffs’ inflationary impact: only a handful of officials favor a July rate cut while most remain on hold. The next pivotal moments are July 15’s CPI report and this week’s earnings season. In this “tariff delay + fiscal expansion + labor-market resilience + Fed discord” summer window, both BTC and the S&P 500 appear well-positioned to extend their short-term strength — though their trajectories remain highly sensitive to upcoming macro data, geopolitical developments, and policy signals.
On-chain metrics confirm the market’s underpinning: centralized exchange BTC reserves have fallen to roughly 2.4 million coins (<11% of supply). In derivatives, Deribit’s BTC option open interest has topped $40 billion with a 0.75 put/call ratio and a maximum pain point at $102,000, while ETH options OI exceeds $20 billion with a 0.52 put/call ratio and a pain point at $2,200—highlighting tightened liquidity, stablecoin buying power, and cautious optimism that suggest upside and base‐building remain viable this summer, but a break below $102,000 on BTC or $2,200 on ETH could trigger significant option-driven liquidations.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
Source: HTX Research
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