- Standard Chartered’s report indicates that the U.S. presidential election could significantly influence Bitcoin prices, with scenarios suggesting potential surges if Republicans secure wins, potentially driving BTC up to $125,000 by year-end.
- Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum experienced a 5% decline in October due to growing competition from other smart contract platforms and tepid responses to ETH-based ETFs, alongside selling pressure from major stakeholders.
- Analysts anticipate key November events, including a potential Fed rate cut and Microsoft’s possible BTC purchase, as factors that could drive market liquidity and volatility, with BTC projected to trade between $66,000 and $75,000.
Bitcoin price has gained nearly 10% month-to-date to hit $69,580 on October 28 from $63,484 on October 1. This ascent also coincides with the formation of “golden cross,” a sign frequently interpreted as a bullish momentum indicator by traders. Specifically, Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 200-day SMA.
The bullish technical setup is bolstered by fundamental tailwinds and growing institutional attention.
Recent research from Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, projects further BTC gains in response to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
“We estimate BTC could reach approximately $73,000 by Election Day, November 5,” Kendrick stated, with outcomes from the election potentially catalyzing additional moves.
According to Kendrick, a Trump victory could push Bitcoin up by another 4% initially, with a potential year-end target of $125,000 if Republicans gain control of Congress. Conversely, a Democratic win led by Vice President Harris could introduce initial price fluctuations but still project BTC to hit new highs around $75,000 by year-end.
Ethereum Slips as Competition Grows, Market Sentiment Wavers
While Bitcoin revels in its bullish moment, Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, is experiencing its first October loss since 2018.
ETH price dropped by 5% month-to-date, reaching $2,511 on October 28 from $2,644 at the month’s start. This downturn comes amid intensifying competition from emerging smart contract platforms such as Solana, coupled with muted market interest in Ethereum-based spot ETFs.
Investors and analysts are keeping a close eye on Ethereum’s performance, especially as it faces selling pressure from major institutional stakeholders and the Ethereum Foundation’s continued weekly sales of ETH, which have contributed to a softening in market sentiment.
BTC, ETH November Outlook: Macroeconomic Factors and Institutional Activity as Potential Catalysts
Looking ahead, both Bitcoin and Ethereum face a unique set of macroeconomic and market-related catalysts that could influence their trajectories in November.
According to Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, three key factors could shape Bitcoin’s performance over the next month:
- Interest Rate Cuts: A Federal Reserve interest rate decision is scheduled for November 7, with markets anticipating a 25 basis points cut, potentially reducing rates to the 4.5%-4.75% range. If the cut is confirmed, enhanced macroeconomic liquidity could provide further support for crypto assets by improving investment sentiment across risk assets.
- Rising Implied Volatility and Institutional Participation: Bitcoin’s implied volatility has been trending lower for several months, yet recent spikes in short-term option volatility imply traders are anticipating heightened price swings around key events. Additionally, CME’s BTC open interest reached record highs in September, signaling sustained institutional participation. Consistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $3 billion by late October, reveal a strong appetite for crypto exposure among traditional Wall Street players.
- Microsoft’s Potential BTC Purchase: A pivotal development on the horizon is Microsoft’s potential Bitcoin acquisition, which is currently under board consideration. Should the tech giant proceed, the purchase would not only add considerable market liquidity but could also attract further corporate interest in Bitcoin.
BTC, ETH Price Projections and Strategic Considerations for November
Lee’s analysis projects Bitcoin to trade within a 70% confidence interval range of $66,000 to $75,000, with Ether anticipated to fluctuate between $2,350 and $3,200.
Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and traditional investor interest could push BTC towards the higher end of this range, particularly if the rate cut materializes as expected.
For Ether, however, consistent selling by major stakeholders poses a downside risk, potentially dampening ETH’s ability to break out of its current slump unless broader altcoin liquidity gains traction.
Lee also suggests that altcoins could see increased activity if macro liquidity conditions improve, noting that smaller-cap tokens may benefit from traders reallocating capital away from BTC and ETH. “The influx of capital into BTC ETFs signals a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s integration into traditional financial portfolios,” Lee stated, “but sustained selling pressure from major ETH stakeholders warrants caution.”
Read Also: Bitcoin Eyes Bullish Breakout After 10% Surge, Analysts Predict $74,000 Target and Beyond
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