As 2025 draws to a close, crypto is ending the year in a very different place than it started. Bitcoin, Ethereum and a handful of large-cap assets have pushed to or near new highs, institutional on-ramps have multiplied, and corporate treasuries are no longer strangers to digital assets. At the same time, large parts of the altcoin universe remain deeply underwater after the 2022–2023 drawdown, and the asset class as a whole is more exposed than ever to shifting interest rates, liquidity cycles and broader risk sentiment.
To make sense of this transition phase — somewhere between the speculative excess of past cycles and a more structurally integrated future — we spoke with YouHodler’s chief of markets, Ruslan Lienkha. From his vantage point, the market’s “fundamental health” is gradually improving beneath the surface, even as many of the classic, crypto-native growth engines lose some of their punch and macro economics take center stage.
In the conversation that follows, Lienkha reflects on the past 12 months and explains why Bitcoin and Ethereum now behave more like mainstream risk assets, increasingly shaped by U.S. rate-cut trajectories and global liquidity conditions. He also outlines how corporate balance sheets, institutional participation and evolving regulation are likely to drive the next leg of adoption — and what scenarios could tilt his outlook decisively bullish or bearish as the market heads into 2026.
As we close 2025, how would you characterize the fundamental health of the global crypto market?
I would characterize the fundamental health of the global crypto market as mixed, but gradually improving in structural terms. The industry is moving deeper into integration with traditional finance, with more regulated institutions entering the space and infrastructure becoming increasingly mature. However, most of the internal, crypto-native growth drivers that fueled previous bull cycles are either already priced in or are expected to have a more gradual, long-term impact rather than generating immediate upside.
In the short and medium term, major cryptocurrencies remain heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions — particularly interest rates, liquidity trends, and broader risk sentiment. It is important to note that this dynamic primarily applies to a small set of leading assets such as BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, TRX, etc, which have reached new all-time highs over the past few years.
The rest of the market tells a very different story. A large portion of altcoins never fully recovered from the 2022–2023 crypto winter and continue to trade significantly below their 2021 highs. Even the short-lived bursts of enthusiasm around memecoins did little to alter the structural picture, as very few of these tokens trade above their listing prices.
What macro trends (rate cuts, dollar liquidity, emerging-market adoption, regulatory shifts) have played the biggest role this year?
One of the most influential macro-driven trends in crypto this year has been the increasing accumulation of digital assets by both financial and non-financial corporations. Corporate treasury allocations — following the example set by early adopters — became a major catalyst for market momentum in the first half of the year. This “corporate reserve” trend effectively acted as a new form of institutional demand, reinforcing the narrative of Bitcoin and select large-cap assets as alternative stores of value.
While broader macro themes such as expectations for rate cuts, shifts in global liquidity, and the stabilization of regulatory frameworks also shaped investor sentiment, the wave of companies adding crypto to their balance sheets had a particularly visible impact on price action. The growing number of “copy-cat” strategies amplified the effect, contributing to strong capital inflows and supporting market performance throughout the year.
How do BTC and ETH fundamentals differ now compared with 2023–2024, and what does that say about their resilience going into 2026?
Compared with 2023–2024, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are significantly more integrated into the traditional financial system in 2025. This deeper integration — through institutional products, corporate treasury adoption, and broader participation from regulated financial intermediaries — has strengthened their credibility but also increased their sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions.
As a result, BTC and ETH now behave more like mainstream risk assets. While this reduces idiosyncratic volatility and improves long-term stability, it also increases their exposure to shifts in global macroeconomic sentiment.
What will be the strongest fundamental drivers behind BTC and ETH’s performance in 2026? What fundamental risks should investors watch in 2026?
The strongest fundamental drivers of BTC and ETH in 2026 will remain macroeconomic.
Both assets now exhibit a higher correlation with equities and other high-beta risk assets, meaning shifts in global risk sentiment will have a more pronounced impact than in previous cycles. This applies in both directions: a supportive macro backdrop can amplify upside, while a downturn can transmit more directly into crypto markets.
The key macro variable to monitor in 2026 will be the trajectory of U.S. interest-rate cuts. The market outcome will depend heavily on the context in which easing occurs:
- Soft landing scenario: If rate cuts are delivered alongside moderating inflation and stable economic growth, liquidity conditions will improve without triggering recession fears. This would be broadly constructive for high-beta assets, including BTC and ETH.
- Stagflation or “cutting into inflation” scenario: If inflation remains elevated or reaccelerates while the Fed begins to cut, markets may interpret the move as a sign of weakening economic conditions or a loss of policy control. Historically, such environments have led to a decline in risk assets. Under this scenario, crypto would likely face significant headwinds.
How may institutional participation evolve in 2026?
I expect an increasing number of jurisdictions to establish clear and transparent regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry, which should facilitate broader participation. Consequently, we are likely to see a significant rise in the involvement of banks and other financial institutions in the market in 2026.
Any milestones or catalysts could shift your outlook to a bullish or bearish stance?
Currently, the U.S. economy serves as the primary benchmark for global financial markets, with market sentiment heavily influenced by developments in the U.S. A potential catalyst that could shift this outlook would be an acceleration of dedollarization, combined with the sustained growth of economies outside the U.S. Should other economic centers and currencies gain greater influence globally, it could fundamentally alter the current dependencies on the U.S. market. However, I do not anticipate such a shift occurring within the next few years.
Follow Ruslan Lienkha on:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruslan-lienkha-18445569
To learn more about YouHodler, visit https://www.youhodler.com/
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