Bitcoin Could Hit $90K if Trump Wins, Bernstein Predicts

Key Takeaways

Analysts at Bernstein predict that if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin could surge to $80,000–$90,000 by the end of 2024, driven by anticipated pro-crypto policies and a more favorable regulatory environment.
A win for Kamala Harris could result in a bearish scenario for Bitcoin, with forecasts suggesting it could fall to the $30,000–$40,000 range due to concerns about stricter crypto regulations and a less crypto-friendly administration.

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Bitcoin’s price forecast has become a hot topic among investors, with speculation mounting about how political outcomes could shape the cryptocurrency’s future. According to research analysts at Bernstein, the election could significantly impact the trajectory of Bitcoin, with its potential ascent or decline hinging on the victor’s stance toward the crypto industry.

Bitcoin is being dubbed a “Trump trade” by several analysts, including those at Bernstein, who suggest that a win for Donald Trump could spark a bullish run for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Projections from the research firm outline an optimistic scenario in which Bitcoin could hit between $80,000 and $90,000 by year-end, fueled by pro-crypto policies and a friendlier regulatory environment. In the long term, some forecasts even push Bitcoin’s potential to $335,000 by 2025 under an administration that fosters the growth of digital assets.

Trump’s growing rapport with the crypto community is seen as a key driver of this sentiment. His recent remarks about creating a more supportive regulatory landscape for crypto have been met with enthusiasm from investors and speculators. This is a significant pivot for the former president, who had previously expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies. His newfound engagement with the sector has encouraged many to anticipate a regulatory shift that could open the floodgates for institutional adoption, further legitimizing Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset.

However, a victory for current Vice President Kamala Harris presents a different outlook. Analysts at Bernstein expect a more cautious and potentially bearish market response if Harris were to win. Their forecasts predict Bitcoin dipping to between $30,000 and $40,000, breaking through the current $50,000 floor.

This prediction is driven by concerns over potential regulatory tightening and less favorable policies toward the cryptocurrency industry under a Harris administration. The current administration’s approach to crypto regulation has been cautious, with an emphasis on curbing illicit activities and ensuring investor protection, which some believe could stifle innovation and hinder growth.

The reaction to these forecasts has been mixed within the crypto community. Platforms like X (formerly Twitter) are buzzing with a blend of optimism and caution. While many Bitcoin enthusiasts are eyeing the possibility of a Trump-fueled rally, others warn that market volatility, combined with the unpredictable nature of political influence, could make such predictions precarious. The crypto market has always been highly sensitive to regulatory developments and broader macroeconomic trends, meaning any potential election impact on Bitcoin could be short-lived or tempered by other forces.

These factors, along with broader economic conditions like inflation, global economic stability, and central bank policies, will play significant roles in shaping Bitcoin’s price beyond the election.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $55,150, up 1.31% over the last 24 hours. While the market’s short-term focus remains on the U.S. election, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin is tied to a complex web of economic, regulatory, and technological factors. The outcome of the election will undoubtedly have an impact, but it is just one of many variables that will determine the cryptocurrency’s future.